As high school rankings gain added intrigue for college basketball fans in the one-and-done era, I couldn’t help but wonder how often the recruiting experts get it right. Do the stars correlate with not only collegiate success, but professional success as well? Of course there’s the LeBron James and Kevin Durant breeds, both five-stars, but also those who slip through the cracks such as Damian Lillard, a former two-star.

I decided to take each playoff roster and break down how each player was ranked by the database coming out of high school. The database was created in 2002, so any player who came out of high school earlier would not be qualified. As a result, I broke my findings into multiple categories.

First, I made seven categories with 5 Stars, 4 Stars, 3 Stars, 2 Stars, 0 Stars, and a pair of “Not Applicable.” The “N/A (Age)” category described players who graduated high school earlier than 2002 and therefore were not in the database. The “N/A (Int’l)” category was used to differentiate international prospects, who aren’t ranked by

I then split the NBA players into three groups from this weekend’s set of games: Starters, reserves who played over 10 minutes of action, and the rest of the roster.

What the results showed are that most of the time, the rankings held true. Of the 80 NBA Playoff starters this weekend, 29 were ranked as 5 Stars out of high school. The next highest category was the “N/A (Age)” category, which certainly would have had more 5 Stars if the database had been older. For example, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, David Lee, and Zach Randolph were just some of the McDonald’s All-Americans who likely would have been considered 5 Stars.

Another 12 starters were International prospects, 11 were 4 stars, and seven were 3 Stars. Damian Lillard was the lone 2 Star not only in a starting lineup, but also in the entire playoffs. George Hill and Jimmy Butler were the only 0 Stars be in a starting lineup.

When it came to the reserves who played over 10 minutes and the rest of the playoff roster, the results were fairly mixed. There were more players who were too old for the Rivals database in both categories, while the 5 Stars, 4 Stars, and 3 Stars were somewhat even.

As a whole, the NBA playoffs consists of 51 5 Stars and 50 “N/A (Age).” The next highest category was in the 4 Stars, with 35 total, followed by 29 International prospects and 28 3 Stars. There’s a smaller chance for 2 Star and 0 Star prospects to make an NBA roster, but it’s far from impossible.

It’s safe to say that the recruiting experts usually get it right. Sure, there are some misses, but five star prospects are usually the top NBA talents. There are bound to be some “busts” and underrated prospects who outperform expectations, but the experts are right more often than not. At the same time, it doesn’t mean a 5 Star is guaranteed an NBA deal, or a 0 Star has no shot at earning an NBA contract.

This was certainly an interesting research project, but would be even more interesting 10 years from now when most of the league has a high school recruiting profile. Will there be another Damian Lillard?

Interesting Notes:

-The only starting lineup that consisted of purely 5 Stars was the Charlotte Bobcats. Josh McRoberts was the biggest surprise, who left Duke after his sophomore year, but has has developed into a key piece for Charlotte.

-Houston was the next closest team to have the full 25-star starting lineup, with a total of 24 stars. Patrick Beverly, a 4 star prospect, was the lone starter for the Rockets who wasn’t a 5 Star.

-Some surprising 3 Stars included Stephen Curry, Paul Millsap, Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Roy Hibbert.

-The “sleepers” are usually point guards. Of the eleven 0 Stars, five were point guards (Hill, Jeremy Lin, Norris Cole, Patty Mills, C.J. McCollum).

The Complete Results Are Below:

5 Stars: 29
4 Stars: 11
3 Stars: 7
2 Stars: 1
0 Stars: 2
N/A (Age): 18
N/A (Int’l): 12

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
5 Stars: 9
4 Stars: 11
3 Stars: 10
2 Stars: 0
0 Stars: 3
N/A (Age): 16
N/A (Int’l): 8

The Rest
5 Stars: 13
4 Stars: 13
3 Stars: 11
2 Stars: 0
0 Stars: 6
N/A (Age): 16
N/A (Int’l): 9

5 Stars: 51
4 Stars: 35
3 Stars: 28
2 Stars: 1
0 Stars: 11
N/A (Age): 50
N/A (Int’l): 29

Atlanta Hawks
PG: Jeff Teague (4 stars, Wake Forest)
SG: Kyle Korver (N/A, Creighton)
SF: DeMarre Carroll (3 stars, Missouri)
PF: Paul Millsap (3 stars, Louisiana Tech)
C: Pero Antic (N/A, Yugoslavia)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
PF: Elton Brand (N/A, Duke)
SG: Louis Williams (5 stars, High School)
PG: Shelvin Mack (3 stars, Butler)
PF: Mike Scott (3 stars, Virginia)

The Rest
SF: Cartier Martin (4 stars, Kansas State)
C: Mike Muscala (0 stars, Bucknell)
PG: Dennis Schroder (N/A, Germany)

Indiana Pacers
PG: George Hill (0 stars, IUPUI)
SG: Lance Stephenson (5 stars, Cincinnati)
SF: Paul George (3 stars, Fresno State)
PF: David West (N/A, Xavier)
C: Roy Hibbert (3 stars, Georgetown)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
PF: Luis Scola (N/A, Argentina)
SG: Evan Turner (4 stars, Ohio State)
C: Ian Mahinmi (N/A, France)
PG: C.J. Watson (3 stars, Tennessee)

The Rest
PF: Lavoy Allen (3 stars, Temple)
SF: Chris Copeland (0 stars, Colorado)
PG: Donald Sloan (4 stars, Texas A&M)
SG: Rasual Butler (N/A, La Salle)

Brooklyn Nets
PG: Deron Williams (4 stars, Illinois)
G: Shaun Livingston (5 stars, High School)
G: Joe Johnson (N/A, Arkansas)
F: Paul Pierce (N/A, Kansas)
C: Kevin Garnett (N/A, High School)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
SF: Alan Anderson (N/A, Michigan State)
C: Andray Blatche (5 stars, High School)
SG: Marcus Thornton (3 stars, LSU)
C: Mason Plumlee (4 stars, Duke)
PF: Mirza Teletovic (N/A, Bosnia)

The Rest
C: Jason Collins (N/A, Stanford)
PG: Jorge Gutierrez (3 stars, Cal)
SF: Andrei Kirilenko (N/A, Russia)

Toronto Raptors
PG: Kyle Lowry (5 stars, Villanova)
SG: DeMar DeRozan (5 stars, USC)
SF: Terrance Ross (4 stars, Washington)
PF: Amir Johnson (4 stars, High School)
C: Jonas Valanciunas (N/A, Lithuania)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
PG: Greivis Vasquez (4 stars, Maryland)
PF: Patrick Patterson (5 stars, Kentucky)
SG: John Salmons (N/A, Miami (FL))

The Rest
PF: Tyler Hansbrough (5 stars, North Carolina)
PF: Chuck Hayes (N/A, Kentucky)
PG: Nando de Colo (N/A, France)
SG: Steve Novak (3 stars, Marquette)
SF: Landry Fields (3 stars, Stanford)

Golden State Warriors
PG: Stephen Curry (3 stars, Davidson)
SG: Klay Thompson (4 stars, Washington State)
SF: Andre Iguodala (4 stars, Arizona)
PF: David Lee (N/A, Florida)
C: Jermaine O’Neal (N/A, High School)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
SF: Harrison Barnes (5 stars, North Carolina)
F: Draymond Green (3 stars, Michigan State)
PF: Marreese Speights (4 stars, Florida)

The Rest
PG: Steve Blake (N/A, Maryland)
SG: Jordan Crawford (3 stars, Xavier)
PF: Hilton Armstrong (3 stars, Connecticut)
C: Ognjen Kuzmic (N/A, Yugoslavia)

Los Angeles Clippers
PG: Chris Paul (5 stars, Wake Forest)
SG: J.J. Redick (4 stars, Duke)
SF: Matt Barnes (N/A, UCLA)
PF: Blake Griffin (5 stars, Oklahoma)
C: DeAndre Jordan (5 stars, Texas A&M)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
PG: Darren Collison (4 stars, UCLA)
SG: Jamal Crawford (N/A, High School)
SF: Danny Granger (N/A, New Mexico)

The Rest
SF: Hedo Turkoglu (N/A, Turkey)
C: Ryan Hollins (0 stars, UCLA)
SF: Jared Dudley (0 stars, Boston College)
SG: Willie Green (N/A, Detroit)

Memphis Grizzlies
PG: Mike Conley (5 stars, Ohio State)
SG: Courtney Lee (3 stars, Western Kentucky)
SF: Tayshaun Prince (N/A, Kentucky)
PF: Zach Randolph (N/A, Michigan State)
C: Marc Gasol (N/A, Spain)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
SG: Tony Allen (4 stars, Oklahoma State)
SF: Mike Miller (N/A, Florida)
PG: Beno Udrih (N/A, Yugoslavia)

The Rest
SF: James Johnson (4 stars, Wake Forest)
PF: Ed Davis (5 stars, North Carolina)
C: Kosta Koufos (5 stars, Ohio State)
PF: Jon Leuer (4 stars, Wisconsin)
SG: Nick Calathes (5 stars, Florida)

Oklahoma City Thunder
PG: Russell Westbrook (3 stars, UCLA)
SG: Thabo Sefolosha (N/A, Switzerland)
SF: Kevin Durant (5 stars, Texas)
PF: Serge Ibaka (N/A, Congo)
C: Kendrick Perkins (5 stars, High School)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
SF: Caron Butler (N/A, Connecticut)
PG: Reggie Jackson (3 stars, Boston College)
PF: Nick Collison (N/A, Kansas)
PG: Derek Fisher (N/A, Arkansas-Little Rock)
C: Steven Adams (5 stars, Pittsburgh)

The Rest
C: Hasheem Thabeet (4 stars, Connecticut)
SG: Jeremy Lamb (4 stars, Connecticut)
SF: Perry Jones (5 stars, Baylor)
PF: Grant Jerrett (5 stars, Arizona)

Chicago Bulls
PG: Kirk Hinrich (N/A, Kansas)
SG: Jimmy Butler (0 stars, Marquette)
SF: Mike Dunleavy (N/A, Duke)
PF: Carlos Boozer (N/A, Duke)
C: Joakim Noah (4 stars, Florida)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
PG: D.J. Augustin (4 stars, Texas)
PF: Taj Gibson (4 stars, USC)
SF: Tony Snell (3 stars, New Mexico)

The Rest
C: Nazr Mohammed (N/A, Kentucky)
PF: Lou Amundson (N/A, UNLV)
SF: Ronnie Brewer (4 stars, Arkansas)
PG: Jimmer Fredette (3 stars, BYU)
PG: Mike James (N/A, Duquesne)

Washington Wizards
PG: John Wall (5 stars, Kentucky)
SG: Bradley Beal (5 stars, Florida)
SF: Trevor Ariza (5 stars, UCLA)
PF: Nene Hilario (N/A, Brazil)
C: Marcin Gortat (N/A, Poland)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
PF: Trevor Booker (3 stars, Clemson)
SF: Martell Webster (5 stars, High School)
PG: Andre Miller (N/A, Utah)

The Rest
PF: Drew Gooden (N/A, Kansas)
PF: Al Harrington (N/A, High School)
PG: Garrett Temple (3 stars, LSU)
SF: Otto Porter Jr. (4 stars, Georgetown)
C: Kevin Seraphin (4 stars, France)

Portland Trail Blazers
PG: Damian Lillard (2 stars, Weber State)
SG: Wesley Matthews (4 stars, Marquette)
SF: Nicolas Batum (N/A, France)
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge (5 stars, Texas)
C: Robin Lopez (5 stars, Stanford)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
PG: Mo Williams (N/A, Alabama)
PF: Thomas Robinson (4 stars, Kansas)
SF: Dorell Wright (5 stars, High School)

The Rest
C: Joel Freeland (N/A, England)
SG: Will Barton (5 stars, Memphis)
C: Meyers Leonard (4 stars, Illinois)
PG: Earl Watson (N/A, UCLA)
PG: C.J. McCollum (0 stars, Lehigh)

Houston Rockets
PG: Patrick Beverley (4 stars, Arkansas)
SG: James Harden (5 stars, Arizona State)
SF: Chandler Parsons (5 stars, Florida)
PF: Terrence Jones (5 stars, Kentucky)
C: Dwight Howard (5 stars, High School)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
PG: Jeremy Lin (0 stars, Harvard)
SG: Francisco Garcia (4 stars, Louisville)
C: Omer Asik (N/A, Turkey)

The Rest
PF: Josh Powell (N/A, N.C. State)
PF: Donatas Motierjunas (N/A, Lithuania)
SF: Jordan Hamilton (5 stars, Texas)
SF: Omri Casspi (N/A, Israel)
SG: Troy Daniels (3 stars, VCU)

Miami Heat
PG: Mario Chalmers (5 stars, Kansas)
SG: Dwyane Wade (N/A, Marquette)
SF: LeBron James (5 stars, High School)
PF: Udonis Haslem (N/A, Florida)
C: Chris Bosh (5 stars, Georgia Tech)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
PG: Norris Cole (0 stars, Cleveland State)
SG: Ray Allen (N/A, Connecticut)
C: Chris Anderson (N/A, Blinn College)
SF: James Jones (N/A, Miami (FL))

The Rest
PF: Rashard Lewis (N/A, High School)
SF: Shane Battier (N/A, Duke)
C: Greg Oden (5 stars, Ohio State)
PG: Toney Douglas (4 stars, Florida State)

Charlotte Bobcats
PG: Kemba Walker (5 stars, Connecticut)
SG: Gerald Henderson (5 stars, Duke)
SF: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (5 stars, Kentucky)
PF: Josh McRoberts (5 stars, Duke)
C: Al Jefferson (5 stars, High School)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
SG: Gary Neal (3 stars, Towson)
SG: Chris Douglas-Roberts (4 stars, Memphis)
C: Cody Zeller (5 stars, Indiana)
PG: Luke Ridnour (N/A, Oregon)

The Rest
C: Bismack Biyombo (N/A, Congo)
PF: Anthony Tolliver (3 stars, Creighton)
PF: D.J. White (5 stars, Indiana)
PG: Jannero Pargo (N/A, Arkansas)

San Antonio Spurs
PG: Tony Parker (N/A, France)
SG: Danny Green (4 stars, North Carolina)
SF: Kawhi Leonard (4 stars, San Diego State)
PF: Tim Duncan (N/A, Wake Forest)
C: Tiago Splitter (N/A, Brazil)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
SG: Manu Ginobili (N/A, Argentina)
PF: Boris Diaw (N/A, France)
PG: Patty Mills (0 stars, St. Mary’s)
SG: Marco Belinelli (N/A, Italy)

The Rest
PF: Matt Bonner (N/A, Florida)
C: Jeff Ayres (formerly Jeff Pendergraph) (3 stars, Arizona State)
SF: Austin Daye, Gonzaga (5 stars, Gonzaga)
PG: Cory Joseph (5 stars, Texas)

Dallas Mavericks
PG: Jose Calderon (N/A, Spain)
SG: Monta Ellis (5 stars, High School)
SF: Shawn Marion (N/A, UNLV)
PF: Dirk Nowitzki (N/A, Germany)
C: Samuel Dalembert (N/A, Seton Hall)

Reserves Over 10 Minutes
PG: Devin Harris (N/A, Wisconsin)
SG: Vince Carter (N/A, North Carolina)
PF: Brandan Wright (5 stars, North Carolina)
SF: Jae Crowder (3 stars, Marquette)

The Rest
C: DeJuan Blair (4 stars, Pittsburgh)
PG: Shane Larkin (4 stars, Miami (FL))
SG: Wayne Ellington (5 stars, North Carolina)
C: Bernard James (0 stars, Florida State)