One of the toughest jobs for NBA general managers is deciding what salary a player should receive.  It's obvious with some players: the Shaquille O'Neals and Tim Duncans of the world obviously should get big dollars.  But what about players a notch or two below the elite?

Hoopsworld's Kevin Pelton uses a statistical formula to predict what free agents should get.  Check out his article at http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_801.shtml.  His work got me thinking, and after fiddling with a spreadsheet for a few days, I hit upon an idea for evaluating a player's true worth.  Like any statistical formula, it's not perfect, but you can judge the results for yourself.

Using the Player Production Average formula as a starting point (points + rebounds + assists + steals + block - missed field goal attempts - missed free throw attempts - turnovers - personal fouls), the Salary Formula (? Kevin J. Broom 2002 ? All rights reserved) calculates the player's percentage contribution to the average team's production then multiplies that percentage by the average team's payroll or the salary cap.  Then add in a bonus or penalty based on his team's winning percentage and voila ? a player value expressed in dollars and related directly to team payroll.

Particularly intriguing was the difference between some  players' gross production versus per game averages.  In most cases, the discrepancy was caused by injury, and it gives an idea of how injuries affect teams.

For example, according to the Salary Formula?, Grant Hill's per game averages were worth around $9.8 million last season.  Because of injury, he provided Orlando only $1.67 million worth of production.  Similarly, Chris Webber's per game averages were worth nearly $15.7 million.  His total production was worth $10.3 million.

The 25 Most Valuable Players (per game averages) vs. Average Team Payroll

1. Tim Duncan ? $17,963,105
2. Shaquille O'Neal ? $16,049,485
3. Chris Webber ? $15,697,716
4. Kevin Garnett ? $15,558,688
5. Dirk Nowitzki ? $14,648,339
6. Tracy McGrady ? $13,739,111
7. Kobe Bryant ? $12,985,268
8. Gary Payton ? $12,880,065
9. Paul Pierce ? $12,538,888
10. Elton Brand ? $12,478,207
11. Jason Kidd ? $12,205,005
12. Karl Malone ? $11,905,192
13. Ben Wallace ? $11,812,999
14. Allen Iverson ? $11,646,486
15. Predrag Stojakovic ? $11,407,480
16. Shawn Marion ? $11,008,260
17. Antoine Walker ? $10,928,830
18. Steve Nash ? $10,852,050
19. Rasheed Wallace ? $10,751,232
20. Andre Miller ? $10,636,624
21. Shareef Abdur-Rahim ? $10,443,653
22. Brent Barry ? $10,406,742
23. Michael Finley ? $10,366,286
24. Jermaine O'Neal ? $10,317,079
25. Ray Allen ? $10,139,510

25 Most Valuable Players (using season totals*)

1. Tim Duncan ? $17,954,520
2. Kevin Garnett ? $15,361,603
3. Dirk Nowitzki ? $13,570,021
4. Shaquille O'Neal ? $13,107,337
5. Gary Payton ? $12,873,909
6. Tracy McGrady ? $12,727,725
7. Kobe Bryant ? $12,662,500
8. Paul Pierce ? $12,532,895
9. Jason Kidd ? $12,199,173
10. Elton Brand ? $12,168,042
11. Karl Malone ? $11,609,271
12. Ben Wallace ? $11,519,369
13. Shawn Marion ? $10,868,816
14. Steve Nash ? $10,846,864
15. Antoine Walker ? $10,790,393
16. Andre Miller ? $10,501,888
17. Rasheed Wallace ? $10,352,944
18. Chris Webber ? $10,332,580
19. Brent Barry ? $10,274,918
20. Predrag Stojakovic ? $9,872,488
21. Shareef Abdur-Rahim ? $9,802,158
22. John Stockton ? $9,754,619
23. Pau Gasol ? $9,482,704
24. Baron Davis ? $9,478,545
25. Jermaine O'Neal ? $9,238,959

* ? Totals reward players who remained healthy throughout the season.

Lost Production Top 10 (largest gap between value using per game averages and value using season totals)

1. Grant Hill ? $8,119,033 (difference)
2. Terrell Brandon ? $5,836,208
3. Antonio McDyess ? $5,769,301
4. Chris Webber ? $5,365,136
5. Marcus Camby ? $4,921,855
6. Jamal Mashburn ? $4,917,644
7. Lamar Odom ? $4,471,014
8. Theo Ratliff ? $3,831,110
9. Tyrone Hill ? $3,318,916
10. Allen Iverson ? $3,128,740

Top Five Rookies

1. Pau Gasol ? $9,487,238
2. Andrei Kirilenko ? $6,749,344
3. Shane Battier ? $6,226,283
4. Jamal Tinsley ? $5,951,242
5. Tony Parker ? $4,837,543

Marion To The Max

Phoenix's Shawn Marion recently signed a maximum salary extension.  There was considerable debate over whether he's worth that much, but this Salary Formula? offers a definite maybe.  A maximum salary for a player of Marion's experience against this year's $40.271 million salary cap is $10.067 million.  Marion's value last season ? even accounting for the fact that he played for a losing Suns team ? was slightly more than $11 million.

But his value varies depending on how that value is applied.  If that $11 million is the starting salary, Marion is a max player. If it's best used as the average salary over the length of the deal, Phoenix overpaid.

How Much For Rashard?

Rashard Lewis and Seattle have been wrangling over what his contract should be and have yet to reach a conclusion.  Lewis wants a seven-year deal worth around $90 million.  Seattle is offering guaranteed money of around $60 million for the same period, with the possibility of earning another $15 million in incentives.  The Formula says Lewis was worth $9.3 million last season.

No comes the dicey part ?  how should that $9.3 million be used?  Using it as an average salary yields a seven-year $65.3 million deal.  That's close to what Seattle is offering.  Using it as a starting salary generates a seven-year $89.8 million contract, which is what Lewis is requesting.

If I play Solomon and split the baby, I get a seven-year deal worth $77.5 million ? pretty close to what Seattle is offering including incentives.

What Color Is The Sky In Wally World?

Timberwolves shooting guard Wally Szczerbiak was roundly criticized for seeking a maximum salary extension.  The Formula says he was worth $9.2 million last season.  That's about a million short of the max.  Try again next year Wally.

Is Cuban Monitoring My Computer?

Dallas center Raef LaFrentz signed a seven-year, $60 million contract to remain with the Mavericks.  That works out to an average salary of $8.57 million.  How does that compare to the Salary Formula?  Last season with the Mavericks, LaFrentz was worth $8.56 million.

MJ

Michael Jordan returned to the court last season for a veteran's minimum of $1 million, which he donated to charity.  The Salary Formula says he was worth $9.37 million.  Injuries kept him out of 22 games, which cost the Wizards nearly $2.3 million in his total production.  Still, Jordan was one of the league's biggest bargains last season.

You Too Can Be An Overpaid Knicks Player

Nobody overpays players like the Knicks.  Last season the Knicks paid Allan Houston and Latrell Sprewell a combined $24 million.  They were actually worth $13.1 million.  At least they were worth something, though.  Teammate Felton Spencer would've owed the Knicks nearly $400,000 according to the Salary Formula.

Contact Kevin Broom at kevinbroom@realgm.com