Chicago Bulls
2004-2005 Prediction: 32-50, fifth in Central Division
2004-2005 Finish: 47-35, second in Central Division

Bulls management correctly realized making a commitment to Tyson Chandler was far more important than locking up question mark Eddy Curry. ? Mike Sweetney is a downgrade from Curry in nearly all phases of the game, but the trade was a good one because Curry was a goner anyway.  Sweetney will at least take pressure off Chandler on the glass.  Moving Chandler to center might well constitute an upgrade at that position. ? Over the course of two seasons, Kirk Hinrich has successfully brought his high-energy game to the NBA.  However, that Hinrich is such a pleasure to watch for his athleticism and creativity only makes his limitations?poor man-to-man defense, inefficient shooting?all the more glaring.  He is already average or better at the point position, but his gifts and fire could carry him to far greater accomplishments than we have yet seen from him.  The pressure mounts for Hinrich to grow as Chris Duhon and Ben Gordon continue to impress. ? As expected, Gordon proved a worthy pro in spite of his early struggles, and how!  By midseason he was the Bulls? go-to clutch playmaker.  Growth from Sixth Man of the Year to strong starter seems only natural. ? Gordon and Duhon were the most impressive pair of rookie defenders I?ve seen on one team in some time.  From Duhon, this was little surprise, but Gordon had appeared lost in the preseason, and when he did come around, his solid defense went largely unnoticed.  As the minutes for these sophomores increase, the Bulls already outstanding defense will become even better. ? Speaking of sophomores, Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni both met expectations, and Deng in particular is developing into a long, strong midrange slasher.  Perennial enigma Tim Thomas adds another shooter to the mix at small forward, but Coach Skiles won?t take minutes away from the incumbents just to be teased by four or five spectacular games from Thomas. ? Many are expecting a return to earth, and that?s possible, but last year?s record included an aberrant 0-9 start, hence predicting a similar record this year even allowing for a slight letdown. ?

PG Hinrich/Duhon/Pargo
SG Gordon/Piatkowski
SF Deng/Nocioni/Thomas
PF Sweetney/Songalia/Allen
C Chandler/Harrington

2005-2006 Prediction: 44-38, fourth in Central Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Bulls just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
Gordon, Deng, Nocioni, and Duhon were even more impressive as sophomores. ? Swapping Curry for Sweetney and sliding Chandler to center improved the Bulls? rebounding, and growth by all rendered the defense downright suffocating. ? Somebody other than Gordon stepped up in crunch time, as just enough key shots were sunk to pull out 16 low-scoring playoff wins. ?

Wait, no, the Bulls just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
Four sophomore slumps stunted the growth of the team. ? Curry took the Bulls? playoff spot with him to New York. ?

Cleveland Cavaliers
2004-2005 Prediction: 45-37, third in Central Division
2004-2005 Finish: 42-40, fourth in Central Division

No team enjoyed a better summer than the Cavs did.  Damon Jones and Larry Hughes are just the jump shooter and defensive stopper, respectively, the Cavs needed to solidify their backcourt.  If Eric Snow will show up for a new coach, but in the same limited role as before, this is a scary unit.  Depth is no problem, as LeBron James can cover either guard spot when needed. ? Even if James? numbers level off or regress, continued polish in his handling and defense with vault him closer to the legendary heights he seems certain to scale.  Now he has two great shooters?Jones and Donyell Marshall?to punish opponents for collapsing on him, and one great defender?Hughes?to help James conserve his energy at the other end; the pressure mounts for James to utilize these weapons to dominating effect.  Does anybody really doubt he?ll do just that? ? Marshall?s assignment is tailor-made to his skills: rebound, run the floor, and hit open jumpers.  He is also the perfect changeup to Drew Gooden, who is more of a bruiser by comparison.  Gooden?s numbers couldn?t match those of supervillain Carlos Boozer, but at the end of the day he gave the Cavs a more versatile scorer and a better post defender than Boozer. ? Ilgauskas must of course stay healthy for this team to succeed, but he has been reliable over the past three seasons.  Shaq and the Wallace combo are the only big men who can dominate Z in the Eastern Conference. ? No team outside of San Antonio is as complete as the Cavaliers, but can they put it all together in their first season? ?

PG Snow/Jones/Wilks
SG Hughes/Pavlovic
SF James/Jackson/Newble
PF Gooden/Marshall/Henderson/Varaejo
C Ilgauskas/Hamilton/Andriuskevicius

2005-2006 Prediction: 57-25, first in Central Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Cavaliers just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
James approached Oscar Robertson numbers in year three and ran away with the MVP award. ? Jones and Hughes thrived, while Snow accepted his role and lent a steady hand at both ends. ? Ilgauskas and Gooden were models for unspectacular production, and Marshall scored from three positions. ? LeBron threatened Finals scoring records and ran away with that MVP award, too. ?

Wait, no, the Cavaliers just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
Ilgauskas? run of good health came to an end. ? Snow pouted again, and Jones looked decidedly average without Shaq to create wide-open threes for him. ? LeBron?s numbers faltered, and he buckled under the pressure as critics wondered why he couldn?t lead his improved supporting cast into the playoffs. ?

Detroit Pistons
2004-2005 Prediction: 58-24, first in Central Division, NBA Champs
2004-2005 Finish: 54-28, first in Central Division, East Champs

Make no mistake, Larry Brown is the best coach in the NBA, but Flip Saunders is just as suited to the Pistons job?maybe even better suited, if he can mastermind some new twists to a frequently predictable offense and utilize a variety of zone defenses?his specialty at the end?to render the defense even more dominating. ? Success starts with the Wallaces, who will continue to suffocate opponents.  Big Ben is approaching free agency next summer, so a decline in his game is improbable.  Sheed is finally appreciated for the player he is despite not putting up superstar numbers.  Those numbers might even decline as he ages, but he remains the only power forward on a contender who can score over Duncan and hang with him defensively. ?Few have noticed that Chauncey Billups is much more than a playoff hero.  He?s been leading the Pistons since he arrived in Detroit. ? It?s unfair to suggest that a true successor to Reggie Miller should have his insane shooting range; Rip Hamilton is truly his equal when it comes to scrapping for any and all scoring opportunities, especially by moving off the ball. ? Brown never trusted his bench much, but Saunders will give them minutes.  Trouble is, it seems to me Brown?s worries were justified.  Neither Arroyo nor Hunter is a capable floor general.  McDyess was superb in limited doses, but he is the only trustworthy big man in reserve.  Saunders certainly won?t allow the bench to hurt his team, but he might find himself leaning on the starters just as much as Brown did. ?

PG Billups/Arroyo/Acker
SG Hamilton/Hunter/Delfino
SF Prince/Evans
PF Wallace/McDyess/Maxiell
C Wallace/Davis/Milicic

2005-2006 Prediction: 52-30, third in Central Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Pistons just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
The institution of some new schemes by Saunders made the defense even better and gave the Wallaces longer rests in the regular season. ? Billups, rewarded with a trip to the All-Star game, turned in playoff-caliber performances for most of the season. ? The Pistons held off the Cavs, Pacers, Nets, and Heat over the course of a fierce regular season and even fiercer playoffs, then reversed their game seven fortunes against the Spurs in the Finals.

Wait, no, the Pistons just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
The team-first philosophy broke down as Sheed dialed up the disruptions, Big Ben played for Big Dollars, and the team responded to Saunders as they did during Carlisle?s last days. ? Dale Davis and McDyess broke down, too, forcing the team to rely on the human victory cigar to contribute to victories. ? An injury to a starter compounded the Pistons? troubles by midseason, so they tanked the season to reload for 06-07. ?

Indiana Pacers
2004-2005 Prediction: 55-27, second in Central Division
2004-2005 Finish: 44-38, third in Central Division

The biggest story is, of course, the return of Ron Artest.  If he can avoid any meltdowns and vacations to promote his music, he resumes his role as the most fearsome defender in the league.  Can he pick up the scoring pace he set in his brief ?04-?05 season?  He?ll probably have to for the Pacers to outscore elite opponents. ? The losses of Reggie Miller and James Jones are not insignificant.  Jonathan Bender and Fred Jones, so used to being great bit players, are being counted on for consistency now.  Neither excels defensively, and both are prone to shooting slumps, which negate the pair?s biggest strength.  Rookie Danny Granger and import Sarunas Jasikevicius will handle mopping up duties well enough, but it?s quite possible these two are essential for any chance the Pacers have at postseason success.  Granger, at least, is a good bet to meet the team?s need for a full-court energizer off the bench.  Having drawn comparisons to Shawn Marion and even Andrei Kirilenko, Granger is an explosive transition player and rebounder, but he is not what the Pacers arguably need most: a creative scorer. ? Once again it?s Jermaine O?Neal by himself against the top big men in the league.  Jeff Foster does what he can and puts up solid numbers in the process, but he?s just not much help against Sheed, Shaq, or Duncan, especially when it comes to taking scoring pressure off O?Neal.  O?Neal usually takes the criticism when the Pacers come up short against those foes, and some share of criticism is rightly directed his way, but the Pacers purport to have a better supporting cast up front than other contenders, and this is demonstrably not the case.  The Pacers could use Brad Miller, but I digress. ? The Pacers are neither a better offensive nor better defensive team than the Pistons, but they?ll go as far as their desire, and their temper, can carry them. ?

PG Tinsley/Jasikevicius/Johnson
SG Jackson/Jones
SF Artest/Granger/Bender
PF O?Neal/Croshere/Walker
C Foster/Pollard/Harrison

2005-2006 Prediction: 54-28, second in Central Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Pacers just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
A gigantic chip on their shoulders inspired the Pacers to out hustle every opponent, every night en route to the top record in the league, home court advantage, and a psychological edge over exhausted adversaries. ? Especially exhausted were those unfortunate souls forced to match up with Artest, who exceeded last season?s numbers and irritated Wade, Ginobili, Kobe, and everybody else?especially the MVP voters who had no choice but to give him consideration for his efforts. ? O?Neal got help either from an improved Foster or a post scorer acquired in trade. ? Jasikevicius hit the Finals-winning shot and declared himself the best player in the world. ?

Wait, no, the Pacers just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
Artest imploded again, and the team either lost him to suspension or was forced to dump him in trade.  Granger failed to carry his preseason flourish into the regular season, and Bender was the same ol? disappointment, leaving the small forward position in shambles. ? It was last season all over again, only without two key veterans (Miller, Jones) largely responsible for keeping the ship afloat.

Milwaukee Bucks
2004-2005 Prediction: 36-46, fourth in Central Division
2004-2005 Finish: 30-52, fifth in Central Division

A busy offseason, beginning with the draft of Andrew Bogut and culminating in the trade of Desmond Mason for Jamaal Magloire, has beefed up the Bucks frontcourt.  But will the effects be seen right away?  Bogut hasn?t emerged as a better starting candidate than Joe Smith at power forward and so is reduced to a bench role, at least early in the season.  Magloire, meanwhile, is a slight upgrade over Dan Gadzuric in the middle, but Gadzuric?s development into a productive center might be negated by competing with Magloire and even Bogut for minutes. ? To be sure, this is a deeper team than any the Bucks have had post-Ray Allen, but does the net effect of the offseason transformation constitute much of an upgrade?  Bobby Simmons is certainly not a better player than the departed Mason.  Magloire is better than departed ZaZa Pachulia, but perhaps not by such a wide margin that the loss of Mason is justified. ? If T.J. Ford stays healthy, he?s worth a few wins.  He?ll miss having Mason running alongside him on the break, but he should allow Simmons to improve on his impressive 2004-2005 season, as well as take pressure off Michael Redd to create all the offense in the half court. ? Redd is a great shooter and an abysmal defender.  Paired with the diminutive Ford, the Bucks are left with a turnstile for perimeter defense.  For that reason, adding a capable shot-blocker in Magloire makes sense, but it probably won?t help enough. ?

PG Ford/Williams/Gaines
SG Redd/Welsch
SF Simmons/Kukoc/Davis/Ilyasova
PF Smith/Bogut
C Magloire/Gadzuric/Johnson

2005-2006 Prediction: 36-46, fifth in Central Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Bucks just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
After a slow start, Bogut exploded on the scene with footwork and vision becoming a ten-year veteran, routinely dropping twenty, ten, and five. ? Ford and Mo Williams ran circles around tired pointmen throughout the league, racking up easy buckets and assisting wide open jumpers for Redd and Simmons. ? Magloire, Gadzuric, and Smith gave their characteristic hustle and provided just enough defense against the elite bigs in the league for the Bucks to edge their playoff foes in throwback games where the first team to 140 wins. ?

Wait, no, the Bucks just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
They paid the Magic for their secrets. ?