RealGM Analysis
2007-2008 Finish: 15-67
2008 Draft Picks: 2nd, 52nd
Pre-Draft 2008-09 Projected Starters:
PG Chris Quinn
SG Dwyane Wade
SF Shawn Marion
PF Udonis Haslem
C Mark Blount
Key Reserves:
PG Marcus Banks
SG Daequan Cook
SF Stephane Lasme
What the Heat Do Well:
The Heat tied a franchise record for most losses in a season last year, so there aren?t many facets of their game that can easily be described as being done well. They have fallen from an NBA Championship in 2006 to being by far and away the worst team in the league in 2007-08. However, they dealt with many injuries and will have some very valuable pieces coming back next year.
Let?s start with Dwyane Wade. He is one of the game?s elite players when healthy and is the face of this Heat franchise. He is a top flight shooting guard, and the team can be built around him. They also have a very valuable commodity at small forward. Shawn Marion came over from the Phoenix Suns as a part of the Shaq Trade and will team with Wade to be a very potent one-two punch on both sides of the floor.
As far as big men go, the Heat are severely lacking. They have a very serviceable option at the power forward, where Udonis Haslem has been a steady force for the past couple of seasons. But other than him, they have Mark Blount and a potpourri of NBDL All-Stars.
The two big questions surrounding this offseason for the Heat are will they trade their second overall pick to get a legit point guard or center along with another top-10 pick, and will they resign Ricky Davis and Jason Williams? With the second pick in this Draft with a consensus number 1 and 2, they can easily find takers willing to give up the goods for a chance to land Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley. Word out of Miami camp is that they are pretty high on O.J. Mayo. However, it would be astronomically stupid to pick him at 2 when there are a handful of teams that would be willing to spend big for a chance to draft whoever Chicago leaves in the Green Room between Rose and Beasley.
Greatest Areas of Improvement:
Upgrade at Point Guard
Jason Williams was the point guard on a championship team, but he has been a very shaky option for the Heat ever since they acquired him from Memphis three years ago. His 8.8 points and 4.6 assists per game were both career lows, and it is obvious that he is not the future for the Heat at the point. Other than Williams, the Heat toyed with Chris Quinn and NBDL superstar Blake Ahearn as their primary points for much of the season. This is obviously an area that needs a major boost.
Interior Scoring
With the absence of Shaquille O?Neal, the Heat have no inside presence, whatsoever. The big guys that they have like to shoot from the outside, and the only player with double digit rebounds last season was their wingman Shawn Marion. Pat Riley?s teams have historically favored having a big-time anchor in the paint, so look for Riley to try to use the second pick to move down a few slots and grab a big man along the way. Can someone say number 2, Mark Blount and his $15.2M contract to New York for Eddy Curry, Renaldo Balkman, and number 6 overall?
Who?s Gone Number 2 Recently?
Over the past five years, the second overall selection has treated its teams very well...well, with the exception of Darko Milicic to the Pistons. Kevin Durant won Rookie of the Year, LaMarcus Aldridge and Emeka Okafor are turning into All-Star caliber big men, and Marvin Williams showed fans in Atlanta this past season that he is a very talented young small forward.
2007
Kevin Durant, Seattle Supersonics
2006
LaMarcus Aldridge, Chicago Bulls (traded to Portland)
2005
Marvin Williams, Atlanta Hawks
2004
Emeka Okafor, Charlotte Bobcats
2003
Darko Milicic, Detroit Pistons
Who Should the Heat Target?
For more in-depth analysis and background regarding the players that the Heat should target in this year?s Draft, click on each player's name to be redirected to Christopher Reina?s Prospect Report piece.
There?s no denying the importance of having a top tier point guard these days. The worst five teams in the league last year were Miami, Seattle, Minnesota, Memphis, and New York. Can you name each of their starting point guards? (Answer: J-Will/Quinn, Earl Watson, Randy Foye/Marko Jaric, Mike Conley, and Jamal Crawford). Not exactly Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Tony Parker, Jason Kidd, etc. This is why the Heat would love life if the Bulls take a pass on the superstar in waiting Derrick Rose.
- Michael Beasley, PF ? Kansas State:
The Heat have a very similar situation as the Seattle Supersonics last year. They get to just sit back and relax and pick whomever the Bulls don?t pick from the Beasley/Rose Debate. If the Heat end up keeping the second pick and selecting the big man from Kansas State, they will have a very powerful Big Three that will be able to score from anywhere on the floor, in transition or a half-court set. Wade and Beasley would be a very dangerous inside-outside combo, and Marion often thrives on moving without the ball, scoring on cuts and dirty work put-backs. Haslem would then shift to the center position or they can sign a valuable defensive big like DeSagana Diop, or the often-ridiculed but highly serviceable Kwame Brown.
Who Do the Fans Want?
According to Andrew Perna?s Miami Lottery Summit, an interactive column featuring the responses of true RealGM hoops fans hoping to add their two cents to the Heat Draft discussion, the fans of Miami have made it known that they would an upgrade at the power forward position. The consensus of the Heat faithful suggested that they want the second overall selection in the 2008 NBA Draft to be:
Michael Beasley, PF ? Kansas State
Picks Over the Past Five Years
The Heat have been in ?win now? mode for the past five years, so it is easy to understand why they haven?t had the success in the NBA Draft of the other teams that currently reside at the lower end of the win-loss spectrum. However, the last time they had a lottery selection, they ended up taking Wade, whereas the Pistons passed on Wade and ended up walking away with Darko Milicic?
2007
Jason Smith, 20th (traded to Philadelphia)
Stanko Barac, 39th (traded to Indiana)
2006
No picks
2005
Wayne Simien, 29th
2004
Dorell Wright, 19th
Pape Sow, 47th
Matt Frejie, 53rd
2003
Dwyane Wade, 5th
Jerome Beasley, 33rd
Who do you want the Heat to draft at number 2? Feel free to contact Jason M. Williams with your thoughts. He can be reached at Jason.Williams@RealGM.com for comments and questions.