Irving Shines, Duke Falls

During the Wisconsin game, Gus Johnson and Reggie Miller were speculating whether Kyrie Irving’s return caused Duke to lose.  I have actually been scouting every possession with Irving during the tournament, and as of halftime I had a gold star next to Irving’s name.  This was easily his best performance since his return.

From the moment Irving stepped on the floor things were going well.  Kyle Singler, who had been struggling all March from three point range, had hit an open three to start and Irving nabbed an early assist by finding Singler in the corner for three.  Then Irving had multiple possessions where he backed his man down and hit a floater in the lane.  And the most exciting Duke play of the first half might have been when Irving caught the ball in transition, and used a Ryan Kelly seal block to get a bucket-and-one.  Irving even ended the first half with a beautiful feed to Mason Plumlee in transition that resulted in a happy fist bump between Irving and Plumlee.

But I had one negative note on my scorecard.  Other than that play in transition, Irving did not seem to be looking Plumlee’s direction at all.  When Nolan Smith had the ball, he was focused on getting the ball in the paint.  But when Irving had the ball, he was focused on his own offense.  And with Nolan Smith in foul trouble, Duke seemed to go away from passing the ball inside.

Singler managed to score inside with some dribble penetration, but Duke missed a golden opportunity to attack Arizona’s weaker interior defense.  And on a night where Irving posted spectacular individual numbers, Duke’s team-wide numbers suffered.

In the post-game commentary on TBS, Seth Davis was all over this story-line, speculating that Irving’s return disrupted a well-oiled machine.  Here was Tom Izzo’s response:  “Integrating a star player, that’s a problem I wish I had this year.”  But Izzo admitted that when players come back it can disrupt a team’s rhythm.  And I thought Steve Smith said it even better.  “Irving was better as a decoy.  Duke could not afford to take the ball out of Nolan Smith’s hands when he had been leading the team so well.”

But all this focus on Irving is completely unfair to Arizona.  What the Wildcats did in the second half was start knocking down shots at a ridiculous rate.  And when the shots were not falling, they were there to grab the offensive rebounds.

At halftime, Derrick Williams had 25 points for Arizona (5 of 6 from three point range), while no one else on the team had more than four points.  Williams had six of the teams 12 rebounds at the half.  And Williams even chipped in three steals and a block in the first half.  Basically, it was a great advertisement for why he was the Pac-10 player of the year, but it was not a great team effort.

But something changed at halftime.  Momo Jones rediscovered an ability to get in the lane.  Soloman Hill started finishing around the basket.  And just when you expected Duke to make one last furious rally, Arizona kept making impossible shots.

I’ve felt like the Pac-10 was somewhat under-rated this season.  (This is why I picked UCLA and Washington to go a little deeper than they did.)  But it was the Arizona Wildcats that have now beaten two of the top five teams in the Pomeroy Rankings.  And in the process, Derrick Williams is no longer the hidden gem that only Pac-10 fans and college basketball junkies know about.

Did Butler Break the Swing Offense?

-- Great job by Butler denying passing lanes.  They were not afraid of Wisconsin taking the ball to the basket, so they gambled and denied perimeter passes.  This completely interrupted the flow of Wisconsin’s offense.  The Badgers have struggled away from the Kohl Center this year, but I don’t remember any team taking them out of their offensive sets as much as Butler did on Thursday.

-- I’m pretty sure Butler never planned for Wisconsin using full court pressure, but it was the key to the Badgers making a late run and making the final margin respectable.

-- I kept listening for Gus Johnson to say something about calling the 36-33 Penn St. vs Wisconsin game, but I never heard it.  When Wisconsin had scored just five points in the first 10 minutes of the second half, one of the other commentators brought it up and called the 36-33 game an embarrassing performance.  But Johnson never took the bait while I was listening.  He appreciates his part-time employment with the Big Ten network.

A Stupid Question?

Gus Johnson asked an interesting question at the end of the BYU/Florida game.  Should BYU foul Florida in a tie game?  While my answer is “no”, and conventional wisdom says you never foul in that situation, this NBA True Hoop post makes me think the answer is a little more complicated. 

Let’s look at the end game situation.  If you do not have the ball and the other team scores 50% of the time, you lose 50% of the time.  And you also lose 50% of the time if the game goes into overtime.  So if you do not foul and the other team has the ball, your odds of winning are only 25%.  But what if you foul and the other team makes both free throws.  Can you get a three point shot off that has better odds than 25%?  And if the other team misses one of the two free throws, can you get any shot with a greater than 25% chance at the buzzer?

There are really two reasons this argument does not work.  First, the other team probably is not going to score 50% of the time at the end of regulation because they are milking the clock and taking a tough shot at the buzzer.  Second, if you believe you have the superior team, as most coaches probably do, you probably think you lose less than 50% of the time if the game goes to overtime.  This can easily flip the math.

Thus, I am not advocating that fouling is the right strategy, but I do want to say that Gus Johnson’s question is not a stupid one.

(Personally, I advocate trying to get a five second closely guarded call with about 20 seconds left, and if in the chaos one of your guys gets beat, then maybe you foul.  But sitting back and waiting for the other team to take the shot just seems wrong.)

-- Remember when Chandler Parson’s used to make game winning shots?  Luckily for Florida, they had enough in OT to prevail.

-- I rarely comment on the officials, but there seemed to be multiple horrible fouls on Florida’s big men when they grabbed clean offensive rebounds.  Very puzzling.

-- As I suspected, Kenny Boynton (5-14) and Erving Walker (5-13) hit some big shots but they also took enough bad shots to keep the other team in the game.  But Alex Tyus was not going to be denied.  Tyus, who was 8 of 9 from the floor, posted an impressive 19 point, 17 rebound double-double.

Rivalry game?

What was with all the crazy technical fouls in the San Diego St. game?  Jamaal Franklin is really going to regret giving Kemba Walker a nudge while walking off the floor at one of the time outs.  Sure, Walker sold the shoulder nudge like he was knocked over by a semi-truck, but there is no reason to do something that stupid in an NCAA tournament game. 

I love that San Diego St.’s Kawhi Leonard’s mom had a jersey that said “Mom”.

UConn’s Jeremy Lamb hit an absolutely sensational step-back three pointer in the first half with the shot-clock winding down.  Lamb was 9 of 11 from the field and has absolutely been on fire in March.  I thought UConn would need to get to the line to beat San Diego St., but because of Lamb’s hot shooting, and the team making 50% of its threes, UConn was able to overcome San Diego St.’s edge in offensive rebounding.

What was the impact of Duke’s loss and other games?

If you are wondering what the various columns mean click here.

Expected Wins in Field of 64

Arizona did the most to help their “Own” cause, by beating Duke.

Overall, it was a terrible night for the Pomeroy Rankings.  The lower ranked team won all four games.  But because the “underdog” won every game, every team in the tournament benefited from the “Other” results.  UConn is in much better shape because they no longer have to face Duke in the regional final.  And even teams as far away as Kansas improved their long-term odds, since Duke is no longer a possible opponent in the NCAA final.

Performance measures the change in the Pomeroy rankings since Sunday night.  Arizona improved their own ranking substantially by not only beating Duke, but by winning by a healthy margin.  Ohio St.’s ranking was hurt by the fact that Wisconsin lost badly.  But the loss of Duke on Ohio St.’s half of the bracket, still substantially improved Ohio St.’s long term expectations.