The Boston Celtics maintained home-court advantage in the 2022 NBA Finals with a physical Game 3 victory over the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday night. Jayson Tatum and the Celtics should get the best effort of Steph Curry and the Warriors in Game 4 as they look to return home tied in the best-of-7 series.

The critical Game 4 is Friday at 9 p.m. ET. Either the Warriors regain the home court on the way back to California, or the Celtics take a commanding 3-1 advantage. NBA betting sites have installed Boston at -170 on the moneyline, compared to Golden State at +150. The point spread is at Celtics -4 with the Over/Under of 214.5 points on betting apps.

The NBA championship odds still have Boston at -240 to win the title, up from -115 prior to Game 3. Golden State is now up to +200 on most betting sites. Here, we break down Game 4 and offer our best bets on the showdown at TD Garden.

NBA Finals Celtics vs Warriors Game 4 Odds

NBA Finals Celtics vs Warriors Game 4 Betting Tips

Paint Masters

Through three games, whichever team owns the paint has owned the game. Boston won the points-in-the-paint battle 34-26 in its Game 1 win, and it was more pronounced in Games 2 and 3. Golden State dominated 40-24 in a 19-point Game 2 victory, while Boston crushed it 52-26 in Game 3’s 16-point win.

When it comes to down-low production, these teams were strikingly similar in the regular season. Boston ranked 23rd in paint scoring (44.9) but No. 2 in paint defense (42.1 ppg allowed), Golden State ranked 24th (44.7) and fifth (43.3), respectively.

Bully Factor

Draymond Green brings Golden State’s fury and physicality while also leading the Warriors in assists – a unique combination. This season he has averaged 7.5 points, 7.3 rebounds and 7.0 assists.

But the Celtics are figuring out how to negate his presence. He is averaging only 5.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists in these finals so far.

On the flip side, Marcus Smart is Draymond Light when it comes to borderline over-aggressive play, but his stats are bigger, and his direct importance in this series more stated.

In Boston’s Game 2 loss, Smart had two points, two rebounds and four assists. In the two wins, he’s averaged 20 points, six boards and five assists. Curry, for all the love, is statistically one of the poorest defensive point guards in the NBA, and when Smart takes advantage, Boston has been next-level tough. Expect more of it.

Close-Game Mindsets

The NBA odds often adjust based on the last performance. In Game 4, each team is in position to find success. The Celtics are a solid 32-29-3 against the spread following a win (52.5%). Their 6.5 points margin-of-victory average ranks second only behind the Jazz. But the Warriors, after a loss, are 19-15 ATS, a 55.9% clip, with a MOV of 6.7 that ranks third in that scenario.

With that being said, the Warriors have shown better makeup with games on the line. When it comes to games decided by six points or less, “close games” as defined in NBA circles, Golden State’s 51.9% win rate ranks middle of the pack. Boston? It has won a shocking 32% of “close games” – only the Pacers were less clutch down the stretch this season.

NBA Finals Celtics vs Warriors Game 4 Prediction

Marcus Smart has been the difference for Boston. When he’s played well, the Celtics have won. When he was ineffective, the Warriors cruised. We saw what was coming in Game 3 and won with Boston.

Now is the time for Golden State’s championship mettle to show itself. Draymond got a wakeup call in Game 3 and coach Steve Kerr can now adjust his defense. We know what Steph can, and will, do, and we finally saw glimpses of Klay Thompson looking like Klay.

We also know Boston is among the NBA’s bottom teams in close games, which pushes us toward skipping the spread and going right for the Warriors moneyline. We’ll skip the Over/Under too, but jump on Golden State to even the series for our best NBA pick this Friday.