((0.4*0.45) + (0.5*0.45)) > ((0.6*0.45)  + (0.8*0.05))

Due to the continuing discrepancy in conference strength, picking an NBA champion proved incredibly challenging entering the 15-16 season. The league has a stacked top tier this season with last year’s Finals teams, the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers, returning largely intact and a stronger set of other title contenders joining them.

While many Eastern Conference teams improved, it mostly came at the edge of the playoff picture rather than the serious contenders. In fact, the Atlanta Hawks losing key starter DeMarre Carroll weakened the team other than Cleveland that looked most capable of knocking off the Western Conference finalist last season.

That confluence of factors led to two questions that helped clarify the most likely NBA champion:

1. How likely are they to make the Finals?

2. If they get there, how likely are they to win it? 

The Warriors start the 15-16 campaign as the best team and thus the most likely to win the NBA Finals should they get there. Their unguardable star (Stephen Curry), strong defense and excellent coaching staff make them a tough out in any seven-game series, but every team in the West has to expect to face a gauntlet of difficult opponents. Injuries will shuffle the deck and likely take at least one contender out as Oklahoma City fans can sadly attest to, but even an unlikely champion like the Grizzlies and Pelicans could win a playoff series against a talented opponent.

Cleveland’s path to the Finals looks substantially easier at the moment. Remember that the Cavs lost a total of two Eastern Conference playoff games last season despite playing without Kevin Love after the first round and having a limited or unavailable Kyrie Irving for much of that time as well. Facing injuries to Irving and Iman Shumpert to start the season limits Cleveland’s regular season win potential but should hone their focus on starting the playoffs healthy. On top of all that, Cleveland has fewer potential pitfalls because so many of the singular talents play out West. Players like Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis who are capable of taking over a game or even a series overwhelmingly play in the other conference and Cleveland possesses nearly all of the East’s most explosive series-shifting talents. 

At first blush, it would make sense that having a superior chance of winning the Finals when you get there matters more than making it in the first place. After all, a team that makes the Finals every time but is severely outmatched will not end the season holding the Larry O’Brien trophy very often. Cleveland does not fit this description and training their focus on being right for the Finals could make them even more dangerous. The Cavs are an imperfect team but have a combination of stars and role players on par with the other title contenders. 

That brings us back to the equation at the top. If the Warriors are 60/40 favorites against Cleveland in what many think is the most likely Finals matchup, and 80/20 favorites against every other potential Eastern Conference opponent, they still need to make the Finals at a rate somewhat close to the Cavs to be the most likely champion.

If Cleveland is a coin flip against anyone else and wins the East 75 percent of the time, the Warriors need to win three series out West 52% of the time to carry the same championship chances. Ratchet the frequency the Cavs win the East up to 80% or 90% and it gets even harder for Golden State - 56% and 64% to keep pace. Even lowering Cleveland’s chances of beating a non-Warriors Western Conference challenger to the same 40% does not help their relative odds too much. 

While the Warriors deserve to start their title defense as the best team in the NBA, Cleveland’s comparatively easy path to the Finals gives them a better chance of holding the Larry O’Brien trophy in eight months.