This is not a strong year for the small forward position. The top three players remain highly touted for the most part because of their status coming out of high school, as all three of Cam Reddish, Nassir Little and Romeo Langford had unimpressive seasons in college.

In a league starved for 3&D wings, only Keldon Johnson fits this profile to a reasonable degree within this group.

ESPN’s top 100 was used as the guide for the positions and rankings cited, for organization purposes.

The stats cited in this post were researched at our own stats’ database and hoop-math and the measurements cited were researched at NBA.com/stats/ and Draft Express’ database.

Let’s dive into the specifics.

- Cam Reddish (Ranked 7th, Duke, 19 years old, 6’8, 207 LBS)

Reddish had a very uninspiring freshman season at Duke. His .499 true shooting percentage and 13.3 PER are very underwhelming marks for a top 10 NBA prospect, especially considering he was not asked to carry the biggest burden of responsibility in college.

With Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett handling more of the shot creation on the team, the six-foot-eight wing didn’t have many opportunities to act as a lead ball handler and was mostly relied on to space the floor in a team that needed it badly. 61.8% of his live ball attempts were three-point shots and 80% of his makes were assisted.

Although he gets a good deal of elevation catching on the hop and is pretty tall to begin with, the 19-year-old [1] has a low release out in front and hard closeouts by lengthy defenders can disrupt his comfort level.

It’s worth mentioning he showed potential on more than just spot-ups. Reddish has a quick trigger and has proven himself able to take shots on the move coming off staggered screens or pindown screens, sprinting to the ball on handoffs and joining the offense late as the trailer in transition.

But he ended up nailing just a third of his 267 three-point shots last season, though at a remarkable pace of 10 such attempts per 40 minutes.

TABLE 1 - TOP FIVE PLAYERS IN THREE-POINT ATTEMPTS PER 40 MINUTES IN 2018-2019, AMONG PLAYERS RANKED ON ESPN'S TOP 100

ESPN RANK

PROSPECT

TEAM

MIN

3PA

3P RATE

3PA/40

3P%

35

Carsen Edwards

Purdue

1275

380

54,1%

11,9

35,5%

7

Cameron Reddish

Duke

1069

267

61,8%

10

33,3%

8

Coby White

North Carolina

999

232

52,3%

9,3

35,3%

63

Zach Norvell, Jr.

Gonzaga

1135

261

62,4%

9,2

37,2%

43

Deividas Sirvydis

Lietuvos Rytas

898

195

70,9%

8,7

36,4%

Source: hoop-math

_

Reddish struggled off the bounce too.

He has a decent mix of dribble moves to get his shot off operating in isolation, out of ball reversals and on side pick-and-rolls – pulling up off hang dribbles, going between the legs, crossovers, spin moves, step-backs and jump-stops. But Reddish is yet to develop into anything more than just a capable shot maker with a hand in his face – hitting just 27.7% of his 83 two-point shots away from the basket.

The Pennsylvania native has shown some side-to-side shiftiness but doesn’t have an explosive first step, struggles to maintain his balance through contact and can’t go up off one foot with power in a crowd. Reddish has shown some ability to adjust his body in the air to maneuver his way among the trees, flashing some impressive finishes on extended finger-rolls and reverses. But for the most part, he did poorly at the basket – converting his 82 attempts at the rim at a poor 51.2% clip.

Reddish can make a pass over the top in side pick-and-roll, kickouts off drawing two to the ball on straight line drives and drop-offs off engaging the last line of defense but is quite turnover prone in his attempts to create for others – turning the ball over on 16.5% of his possessions and posting a 0.7 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Reddish also underachieved on defense.

Reddish can bend his knees to get down in a stance and has a couple of lateral slides in him to stay in front of similarly sized players in isolation but doesn’t leverage his chiseled 207-pound frame to chest up and contain dribble penetration through contact.

He is not suited to crossmatch onto smaller players due to his inability to slide around screens at the point of attack and doesn’t play with the sort of physicality needed to match up with bigger types regularly.

His best work is as a weak-side defender. Reddish does put in the effort to run shooters off their shots on closeouts and maintains his balance to stay attached off the dribble. He also did good use of his seven-foot wingspan to make plays in the passing lanes – averaging 2.1 steals per 40 minutes last season.

- Nassir Little (Ranked 10th, North Carolina, 19 years old, 6’6’’, 224 LBS)

Little averaged just 18.2 minutes per game in his one year at North Carolina.

The six-foot-six wing was the sixth-ranked prospect in the 2018 high school class [2] and Mike Schmitz would often mention on twitter how he viewed Little as a contender for the number one pick down the line.

But it didn’t work out that way, as Little struggled on offense.

Besides not showing any sort of star potential as a shot creator for himself or others, he had a tough time making shots as a floor spacer as well – nailing just 32% of his 153 attempts away from the basket last season.

His handle is underdeveloped and he’s shown only so-so coordination trying to turn the corner operating in side pick-and-roll but can get to the basket on straight line drives on handoffs attacking closeouts thanks to his long strides and his ability to maintain his balance through contact. Little doesn’t have particularly impressive touch on non-dunk finishes but can hang or adjust his body in the air and has a seven-foot-one wingspan for extended finishes among the trees.

The 19-year-old [3] is a very explosive leaper off two feet who can play above the rim as a target for lobs filling the lanes in transition and sneaking behind the defense on lobs. North Carolina had him rolling to the rim some and that might be his endgame in the pros if the outside shot doesn’t come along in the near future.

But despite his current limitations on offense, Little remains a highly rated prospect due to his potential on the other end.

He is a good on-ball defender who bends his knees to get down in a stance, has lateral slides in him to stay in front one-on-one and uses the strength in his 224-pound frame to chest up and contain dribble penetration through contact.

Little profiles as someone who can guard bigger players for stretches thanks to his bulk, physicality and eight-foot-eight standing reach. He also plays with intensity needed for such a task on the glass – collecting 16.3% of opponents’ misses when he was on the floor last season.

TABLE 2 - TOP FIVE PLAYERS IN DEFENSIVE REBOUNDS PER 40 MINUTES IN 2018-2019, AMONG SMALL FORWARDS RANKED ON ESPN'S TOP 100

ESPN RANK

PROSPECT

TEAM

GP

MIN

DRB

DRB/40

37

Dylan Windler

Belmont

33

1097

293

10,7

10

Nassir Little

North Carolina

36

655

109

6,7

36

Admiral Schofield

Tennessee

37

1175

184

6,3

33

Talen Horton-Tucker

Iowa State

35

952

147

6,2

88

Daulton Hommes

Point Loma

36

1132

171

6,0

Source: our stats' database

_

Little wasn’t as effective as a weak-side defender, though. He doesn’t stay in a stance away from the ball, didn’t often execute the scheme picking up the roll man and didn’t maximize his talents flying around to create the events, as his averages of 1.2 blocks and 1.2 steals per 40 minutes are actually not all that impressive for someone with his combination of physical profile and athletic ability.

- Romeo Langford (Ranked 14th, Indiana, 19 years old, 6’6’’, 215 LBS)

Whichever way you want to look at it, Langford had an inefficient time in college.

The six-foot-six slasher averaged 19.1 points per 40 minutes but on 49.1% effective shooting, played damaging defense, tore the ligaments in his right thumb, and couldn’t help Indiana make the NCAA Tournament.

Nonetheless, his skills as a tall shot creator make him a prospect of interest, as Langford has proven himself a versatile scorer in middle pick-and-roll and one-on-one out of ball reversals.

He doesn’t have a tight handle but has a quick first step, is quite shifty and can play with pace in terms of change of speeds. Langford has very good body control and a bag of dribble moves to get to his spots in mid-range in isolation or snaking the pick-and-roll, as he’s able to create separation with crossovers and in-and-out dribbles into his step-back pull-up.

He has an unorthodox release but managed to convert his 125 two-point shots away from the basket at a decent 40% clip.

Langford doesn’t often look to turn the corner or play downhill with a lot of decisiveness but does enough to balance his in-between game with more than a few drives to the goal. He has long strides, can maintain his balance through contact and has shown a knack for inviting contact, despite his lean frame – averaging 7.1 foul shots per 40 minutes.

TABLE 3 - TOP FIVE PLAYERS IN FREE THROW ATTEMPTS PER 40 MINUTES IN 2018-2019, AMONG SMALL FORWARDS RANKED ON ESPN'S TOP 100

ESPN RANK

PROSPECT

TEAM

MIN

FTM

FTA

FT%

FTA/40

93

James Palmer, Jr.

Nebraska

1265

215

282

76,2%

8,9

24

K.Z. Okpala

Stanford

949

116

173

67,1%

7,3

88

Daulton Hommes

Point Loma

1132

172

203

84,7%

7,2

14

Romeo Langford

Indiana

1091

140

194

72,2%

7,1

83

Amir Coffey

Minnesota

1268

162

219

74,0%

6,9

Source: our stats' database

_

The 19-year-old [4] has flashed lefty scoop finishes and extended finishes with his dominant right hand but isn’t an explosive leaper off one foot in traffic – converting just 64.1% of his 145 attempts at the rim.

He makes basic reads on kickouts to the strongside drawing two to the ball and drop-offs off engaging the last line of defense but hasn’t shown anything particularly impressive in terms of pocket passes to the roll man, tossing up lobs on the move or crosscourt passes in traffic.

Off ball, Langford offers very little value. He is a ball stopper who rarely keeps the offense moving, doesn’t relocate around the arc to maintain proper spacing or create passing lanes for his teammates and shot poorly from long range. His injured thumb almost certainly played a role in his poor efficiency on catch-and-shoot opportunities, but his mechanics also need to be tightened up, as Langford needs to work on guide hand discipline in his follow through.

The biggest concerns surround his defense, though.

When engaged, he can hold up reasonably well in isolation – bending his knees to get down in a stance, moving his feet laterally to stay in front and using his eight-foot-seven standing reach to contest pull-ups.

But the Indiana native rarely plays with that sort of intensity. He doesn’t put in the effort to go over screens at the point of attack and is prone to biting on shot fakes often.

His worst work was done as a weak-side defender. Langford could get caught ball watching, didn’t execute the scheme picking up the roll man or helping clog driving lanes, was only so-so on closeouts and didn’t use his length in the passing lanes – averaging just 0.9 steals per 40 minutes, despite his six-foot-11 wingspan.

- Keldon Johnson (Ranked 19th, Kentucky, 19 YEARS OLD, 6’6’’, 216 LBS)

Johnson profiles as a second side threat who can turn the corner off pindown screens and get to his spots against a scrambling defense. That’s how he operated at Kentucky, doing very little as a shot creator for himself or others on the ball.

The 19-year-old [5] was good, even if unspectacular, in that role – nailing 38.4% of his 118 three-point shots and 41.8% of his 141 mid-range attempts, with 25 of his 59 makes assisted. Johnson fully extends himself for a high release, gets a good arc in his shot and the fluidity and quickness of his shooting motion improved over the course of the year.

TABLE 4 - TOP FIVE PLAYERS IN MID-RANGE SHOOTING PERCENTAGE IN THE NCAA IN 2018-2019, AMONG SMALL FORWARDS RANKED ON ESPN'S TOP 100

ESPN RANK

PROSPECT

TEAM

LEVEL

% MID-RANGE FGA

% MID-RANGE FGM

MID-RANGE FGA

MID-RANGE FGM

19

Keldon Johnson

Kentucky

NCAA

37,8%

41,8%

141

59

37

Dylan Windler

Belmont

NCAA

12,6%

41,1%

56

23

36

Admiral Schofield

Tennessee

NCAA

37,3%

40,8%

174

71

14

Romeo Langford

Indiana

NCAA

31,6%

40,0%

125

50

24

K.Z. Okpala

Stanford

NCAA

31,6%

38,8%

116

45

Source: hoop-math

_

Putting the ball on the floor, the Oak Hill product can rise for stop-and-pop jumpers in a pinch and has a running floater and a floater off a jump-stop to finish over length from the in-between area.

Johnson took about a third of his shots at the basket and averaged 5.5 foul shots per 40 minutes, which doesn’t scream superior athleticism and skill as a slasher but are actually decent marks when you consider how crowded paths to the rim tend to be at Kentucky.

He flashed a well-coordinated spin move to weave his way through traffic and ringer-roll finishes with his dominant right hand and lefty scoop finishes with his off left hand. That said, his explosiveness elevating off one foot didn’t translate with the poor spacing in college and he was only so-so at finishing through contact – converting just 59.6% of his 114 shots at the rim last season.

Johnson impressed with his disposition on defense. He bent his knees to get down in a stance diligently, had as a many lateral slides in him as needed to stay in front out in space and chested up to contain dribble penetration through contact with a good deal of physicality, even playing stout post defense against bigger types.

Johnson struggled some negotiating multiple screens chasing shooters around the floor but hustled to disrupt handoffs in impressive fashion. He is not an asset to help protect the rim as a shot blocker but executed the scheme stepping up to the front of the basket as the last line of defense, proved himself a willing charge drawer and collected 16.4% of opponents’ misses when he was on the floor.

- KZ Okpala (Ranked 24th, Stanford, 20 years old, 6’9’’, 209 LBS)

Okpala has a very interesting combination of height and quickness.

Most often operating out of kickouts and ball reversals, the six-foot-nine wing is extremely smooth putting the ball on the floor out of triple threat position and has long strides to get all the way to the basket on straight line drives.

He isn’t an explosive leaper off one foot in traffic and struggles to finish through contact – converting his 164 attempts the rim at a lousy 56.7% clip last season.

TABLE 5 - BOTTOM FIVE PLAYERS IN SHOOTING PERCENTAGE AT THE RIM IN THE NCAA IN 2018-2019, AMONG SMALL FORWARDS RANKED ON ESPN'S TOP 100

ESPN RANK

PROSPECT

TEAM

MIN

% RIM FGA

% RIM FGM

RIM FGA

RIM FGM

7

Cameron Reddish

Duke

1069

19,0%

51,2%

82

42

93

James Palmer, Jr.

Nebraska

1265

39,4%

55,3%

228

126

24

K.Z. Okpala

Stanford

949

44,7%

56,7%

164

93

50

Louis King

Oregon

943

26,5%

57,8%

90

52

75

Kris Wilkes

UCLA

1048

34,2%

59,0%

161

95

Source: hoop-math

_

But Okpala figures to improve his efficiency as a close-range scorer once his weak frame fills up, given the fact he’s shown to be very resourceful among the trees. He can euro-step to maneuver his way through the crowd and uses his length well on finger-roll, extended and up-and-under finishes.

Despite his thin frame, Okpala does not shy away from contact on the move and averaged 7.3 free throws per 40 minutes last season.

He’s also shown to be a decent passer on kickouts and drop-offs off dribble penetration – assisting on 13% of Stanford’s scores when he was on the floor.

As his 27.3% usage rate attests, Okpala also had a good deal of shot creation responsibility on side pick-and-rolls and isolations from the elbow extended area.

He can rise in balance for stop-and-pop pull-ups if the defender goes under the pick and can shoot over the top on step-back pull-ups one-on-one.

Okpala has also flashed decent shiftiness to get by his man going between the legs into a quick first step and tucks the ball to protect it in traffic but can’t bulldoze his way to the basket off the bounce. His court vision is also underdeveloped, as he is prone to driving into crowds.

As is, Okpala often needs to rely on floaters to finish over length from the in-between area, which he’s only so-so at converting.

Off the ball, the Anaheim native does not offer much as a floor spacer at this point of his development. He elevates off an unorthodox base, with his knees almost touching each other, and launches the ball from a low release out in front.

Okpala managed to nail 36.8% of his 87 three-point shots last season but at a pace of just 3.2 such attempts per 40 minutes and his 67.1% foul shooting on 173 free throws puts into question if that average efficiency as an open shot shooter will translate to the longer distance of the pros in the near future.

On the other end, the 20-year-old [6] is a mixed bag.

He hustles in transition defense, ices ball screens to direct the ball handler towards the proper help, negotiates screens well chasing shooters around the floor (his thin frame helps here) and is attentive to his responsibilities switching on the fly.

However, he is often on a soft stance and can’t play with any force in individual defense. Okpala does help the helper on boxouts from time-to-time but gets pushed around often due to his lack of strength and his reactions chasing the ball off the rim are only average.

His weak-side defense is uninspiring as well. He makes some plays getting into passing lanes but his average of 1.2 steals per 40 minutes is unimpressive when you consider his seven-foot-one wingspan. Okpala doesn’t help clog driving lanes a whole lot or leverage his eight-foot-10 standing reach to challenge shots at the rim in help defense either.


[1] DOB: 9/1/1999

[2] According to ESPN

[3] DOB: 2/11/2000

[4] DOB: 10/25/1999

[5] DOB: 10/11/1999

[6] DOB: 4/28/1999