The start of the 2005-2006 season is right around the corner and here is a look at the Western Conference with the Sure Things, Most Likely, On The Bubble, Long Shots and one no No Chance team.

Sure Things:

1. Spurs ? The defending champs have everyone back, and they added Michael Finley, Nick Van Exel and Fabricio Oberto. I think it?s safe to say they?ll be in the playoffs.

2. Suns ? They lost Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson and won?t win 62 games again, but they?re not in danger of missing the playoffs. News of Amare Stoudamire?s knee injury could change that, but until we know for sure that it?s serious, you can assume the Suns will win over 55 games, win the Pacific Division and easily make the playoffs.

Everyone talks about their losses, but the additions of Kurt Thomas and Raja Bell will help their defense and toughness. Also, Amare is a year older and a year better and could give the Suns back-to-back league MVPs.

3. Mavericks ? They lost the heart and soul of the team in Finley, but with Josh Howard?s improvement along with Jerry Stackhouse, Marquis Daniels and newcomer Doug Christie, the Mavs should be able to replace Finley.

Warriors fans know that Erick Dampier cannot be counted on to be consistent, but he?s good enough at center for this team to make the playoffs. With head coach Avery Johnson?s emphasis on defense, they should win 55+ games again.

4. Nuggets ? They were 49-33 last year, but everyone expects them to improve on that with George Karl at the helm for a full season. This team still needs a shooting guard and a 3-point threat, but their overload at point guard could offset that a little.

The way this team finished last year ? 26-4 in their final 30 games with Karl ? and with Carmelo Anthony?s improvement with Karl, the Nuggets have a good shot to challenge for one of the top two seeds in the west.

5. Rockets ? The Tracy McGrady/Yao Ming duo didn?t really get going until the end of last season. With a full year together in the books, I expect them to be much better. Oh, and they had arguably the most important free agent pickup in Stromile Swift.

The Rockets major weakness last year was at power forward (Ryan Bowen and Scott Padgett played PF in the Dallas series), so the addition of Swift should have a major impact. And if Derek Anderson can stay healthy, lookout.

There are question marks at point guard with Bobby Sura injured, Charlie Ward retired and Mike James traded for Rafer Alston. But with a healthy Yao and T-Mac, this team will win over 50 games again.

So that leaves three spots open, and more realistically, it leaves only two because?

Most Likely:

6. Kings ? I know many experts are picking Sacto to win the Pacific, and although it could happen, they have too many new faces to call them a sure thing.

Yes, Bonzi Wells and Shareef Abdur-Rahim are very talented and they give the Kings a great starting five, but we?re talking about Bonzi Wells and Shareef Abdur-Rahim.

Peja Stojakovic, Brad Miller and Mike Bibby will continue to lead this team. They will be in the playoffs and could win the Pacific Division if Bonzi behaves and Shareef is ok with winning, but there?s also a slim chance that everything falls apart.

So that realistically leaves two spots up for grabs in the west.

On The Bubble:

7. Sonics ? They won 52 games last year and got no respect. Well, they?re not getting my respect this year until they prove that A) Last year was not a fluke, and B) they can overcome the losses of Antonio Daniels and Jerome James.

I don?t know if Luke Ridnour can be the man at point guard. He was the starter last year, but Daniels played nearly as many minutes (31 for Ridnour to Daniels? 27) and often played late in games for his defense.

James was an underachiever, but anytime you lose your starting center and don?t replace him, that can?t be a good thing. And power forward Reggie Evans is still unsigned.

This will force the Sonics to rely on guys like Nick Collison, Danny Fortson, Vitaly Potapenko, and possibly Robert Swift and Johan Petro.

Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis give them an excellent chance to get back to the playoffs, but don?t be shocked if the Sonics go from the No. 3 seed to the lottery.

8. Grizzlies ? Talk about a team with some changes. They?ve lost Swift, Wells, Jason Williams, James Posey and Earl Watson while adding Eddie Jones, Bobby Jackson, Damon Stoudamire, Raul Lopez and Hakim Warrick.

They were the No. 8 seed last year with a 45-37 record, and 45 wins is about what it?ll take to get back to the playoffs. Something tells me that won?t happen. They still have Pao Gasol and Shane Battier, but with the loss of Williams, they don?t have a proven point guard or center.

If the Warriors are going to make the playoffs, they need at least one of last year?s playoff teams to fall. The Grizzlies are most likely to be that team.

9. Warriors ? One of the best backcourts in the league. If Baron Davis and Mickael Pietrus ? two guys who have missed time with injuries ? can stay healthy, and if they can get some production from their frontcourt, the drought will be over.

This team is deep, and you never know who will have a breakout season. It could be Pietrus, Zarko Cabarkapa, Mike Dunleavy, or maybe even young players like Andris Biedrins or Ike Diogu.

Jason Richardson could be an All-Star.

10. Timberwolves ? They were the No. 1 seed two years ago and in the lottery with a 44-38 record last year, one game behind No. 8 seed Memphis.

Sam Cassell, Latrell Sprewell and Fred Hoiberg are gone, and their biggest acquisition was Marko Jaric. It doesn?t look too good for Kevin Garnett?s team.

A healthy Garnett will keep the Wolves in the playoff hunt, but like last year, he probably won?t have enough help.

11. Lakers ? Although they finished with the same record as the Warriors, the two teams finished the season in opposite directions.

Kobe Bryant has something to prove after a tough season and he should have a great year. But there are plenty of questions in SoCal.

Can Kobe and Phil Jackson get along? Can Kobe and Lamar Odom share the ball and maximize their potential together? Will Kwame Brown turn around his career and play more like a No. 1 overall pick? Can they get by with Aaron McKie at point guard?

If the answer to all those questions is yes, the Lake Show will be back in the playoffs. However, it?s a little bit of a long shot for everything to pan out.

Odom hasn?t been able to practice at full speed because he?s recovering from off-season shoulder surgery, but he should be 100% by opening day. Don?t expect first-rounder Andrew Bynum to be a factor this year.

12. Clippers ? The Clippers won 37 games last season, then lost their best all-around player (Bobby Simmons) in free agency.

They added Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobley, but Simmons and Jaric (gone to Minnesota) were their best defenders and I don?t see where the defense will come from.

The Clips have a strong starting five with Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, Mobley, Cassell and Chris Kaman, but their bench is weak with Chris Wilcox and Shaun Livingston being the only notable players.

Livingston could be the key to this team. He?s a pure point guard with great vision, tons of potential and he plays great defense. But Livingston wasn?t able to stay healthy and he?s only 20.

Long Shots:

Expect two of the six teams above to grab the last two spots. But injuries happen, and if everything goes right for the following teams, you never know:

13. Jazz ? They only won 26 games last season, but their best player missed half of the season and they had no backcourt.

Andrei Kirilenko is back, and the Jazz took point guard Deron Williams with their first pick. Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer are talented players and they should definitely win more games than last year. The question is, can they win 20 more? In the tough western conference, they should fall short.

14. Trail Blazers ? They have a ton of young talent with first-round pick Martell Webster, Sebastian Telfair and Travis Outlaw. But young teams don?t win in the NBA.

With Stoudamire and Van Exel gone, Telfair will run the team with help from first-rounder Jarrett Jack and Juan Dixon. Even if Telfair and Outlaw have breakout years, I still don?t see this team cracking the top eight.

No Chance:

15. Hornets ? Chris Paul has a good chance to be the rookie of the year, but this team simply doesn?t have the talent to win 30 games let alone 45.

If you have any questions or comments, you can reach me at pjahromi@sbcglobal.net