There’s been a growing belief that the NBA has finally moved to a place where a long, skinny, agile four-year late blooming senior can become a starter-quality player. Frank Kaminsky had a remarkably impressive collegiate career, but I’m not sure either he or the NBA is ready for that scenario.

Most of Kaminsky’s successful plays at the rim come against players two or three years younger or inches shorter than him and it’s impossible to see that translating in the NBA. Kaminsky is a great shooter at his height and his game will come from spotting up and on the pick and pop. There’s enough skill for Kaminsky to put the ball on the deck against a strong closeout, but he’ll need a clear lane or a significant mismatch. Kaminsky does a good job of using his length near the bucket, but has no explosion and is vulnerable against stronger defenders.

Kaminsky improved so dramatically over his four years at Wisconsin and will need to make another similar jump in the NBA to be anything more than a floor stretching big off the bench. Kaminsky underwent a very similar transformation as a shooter as Adreian Payne had at Michigan State. Another former Hawks’ draft pick, Mike Muscala, has a similar all-around profile as Kaminsky. The Hawks would of course be a great fit for Kaminsky stylistically. 

Even if Kaminsky can only become an abbreviated version of himself offensively, the real issue is on defense. Kaminsky is a poor rim protector as a help defender and for as versatile as he is on offense as a 4/5, he’s stuck between the positions on defense. Kaminsky won’t be strong enough against bruising centers and won’t be athletic enough against explosive power forwards. The eyes of players of all sizes will light up when he’s matched up on them and he’ll be like a human aircraft carrier with how perfect he is to be dunked on. 

I may have reservations about Kristaps Porzingis’ potential, but he’s at least a younger, longer, more athletic, better shotblocker version of Kaminsky. You could see some Channing Frye develop offensively in Kaminsky, but Frye at least was giving some rim protection.

For a player like Kaminsky, his success is almost entirely dependent upon fit and the developmental program the team drafting him implements. With the right situation, Kaminsky can surely become a useful player with where the league has gone, but he doesn’t have the talent to thrive anywhere.